AIR121: “Gentlemen! You can’t fight in here! This is the War Room!” (2022 Market Outlook part 2: Defense Markets)

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News -New AIR Partnership

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AIR120 – “And Now for Something Completely Different” (2022 Outlook Part 1: Commercial Markets)

As 2021 draws to a close,  it is now customary for our team to review events that have affected our industries in the past twelve months and provide you with our expectations for the coming calendar year.   While our ability to measure accurately the impact of the pandemic has somewhat limited our near-term analysis  (yes,  the pandemic has made near-term predictions more of a challenge than long-term’s),  we believe that the near-term outlook is entering a new phase, with different and perhaps elevated levels of threats and risks.  We have borrowed the title of this note from the Monty Pythons to illustrate our point; what may come to this industry and the economy might be indeed completely (and unpleasantly) different in 2022.

Cogitatio 64 – A Few Items Worth Mentioning

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Cogitatio 61 – Can Boeing do a new aircraft by 2025?

Bank of America (BofA) and Aviation Week have issued a detailed analysis of airline requirements for a new Boeing aircraft this week.   The study is a more customer focused follow on to previous BofA notes on the topic of the next BCA middle of the market offering.  The key points of the studies are:

The current Boeing narrowbody offering is perceived as inadequate
Roughly half the airlines contacted want the new aircraft by 2027
Propulsion readiness remains a challenge for a…

AIR119 – Boeing has a 767 problem

As Boeing progressively emerges from the MAX disaster and rebuilds its product strategy,  our attention has recently been focusing on the post 767 era.  We characterize the 767 as an anchor aircraft – a system that serves many purposes and is an essential component to Boeing’s commercial and defense market shares.  However,  the expiry date is coming up and Seattle needs to take a decision about the

The Traveling Analyst 1 – Business is booming

We attended the NBAA convention in windy Las Vegas over the past couple of days and are returning to the office with stronger than expected sentiments of uncertainty.

While the mood of the industry is striking a definite positive tone,  we are equally cautious about the deteriorating state of a supply chain that remains deeply woven in other segments of the aerospace and defense industries. However,  the demand outlook  for business aircraft in the near to medium term remains strong and is primarily driven by social and economical circumstances.  This is not a demand cycle associated with

Cogitatio 61 – Will Airbus Transform The Aerospace Industry?

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Cogitatio 60 – A Few Lessons From Down Under

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AIR117 – The US Air Force Bridge Tanker RFI and our (very) preliminary interpretations

The document issued by USAF on 19 July 2021 is an important start for the full recapitalization of the entire legacy Eisenhower tanker fleet. Since the controversial awards of the KC-X program to (initially) Northrop Grumman in 2009 and subsequently to Boeing Defense & Space in 2011, only 179 of the 479 tankers in service are scheduled to be replaced by the end of the decade.  By 2029, the targeted delivery date of the second replacement tranche, existing KC-135s will be seven decades old while KC-10s will be bordering on five decades of service on average.  This state of affairs is an operational weakness for the services, particularly in the event that incidents and potentially wider conflicts erupt in the western Pacific theatre.

Cogitatio 59: Just One Chart

We take a look at potential new programs from 2021 to 2040.   We have only included programs that have either been announced or are driven by realistic market and technology considerations.  The absence of new programs from 2031+ is a reflection of the above.  We of course expect programs to develop during that decade.  Commercial, business and selected defense programs are included.

AIR113 – The Road Ahead

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Cogitatio 57 – A Discussion about Boeing and Near-Term Narrowbody Strategy

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