Cogitatio 55: 2022 and THE risk that Airbus cannot ignore

The recovery from the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic is not going to be all smooth sailing. Society and industry have transitioned from violent contraction to stabilization and perhaps soon, a Friedman-ian “plucking model” moment for some of the world’s advanced economies. The characteristics of the next phase of the crisis are thus going to materialize with significant global disparities.. For the aerospace industry, the likelihood of disruption will migrate away from reduced demand but will be significantly impacted by the societal and political aftershocks of the crisis.

AIR112 – Tempest in a FCAS

Much has been discussed recently about the beleaguered FCAS (Future Combat Air System).  France and Germany are currently trying to find a solution before the end of April, ahead of the much-discussed Bundestag elections in September..  While the two parties appear to be deadlocked about FCAS work shares, and while the situation appears problematic to solve in the near term, some solutions are being developed to meet the crucial agreement deadline and ensure that prototypes and systems are on track for the second half of the decade.

Cogitatio 53 – Boeing’s Strategic Impasse

Honestly, The NMA go/no go story is beginning to look like the Zoom meeting platform.  You just can’t wait to get rid of it. The issue for Seattle continues to center around the necessity to “protect and preserve”.

Situation Analysis

Market needs and conditions have changed, and are challenging over the next 2-4 years. Boeing has fallen behind Airbus in narrowbody market share, which was already dropping before the 737 MAX grounding.  Airbus now holds a 65%-35% lead in narrow-body backlog, a position that is increasingly worrisome to Boeing management and its shareholders.

AIR Monitor 1: Competitive Intelligence Dashboard

We are introducing a new competitive intelligence service:  the AIR Monitor.  Each week,  we will provide a new or updated dashboard containing the latest competitive intelligence and data about an aircraft OEM or a supplier (for commercial and defense markets). This week we take a look at the latest about Boeing (there will be more regular updates for the Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed Martin, Safran and Raytheon Technologies dashboards than other monitored companies) Follow the link to the AIR monitor landing Read more…

AIR111 – PNAA Presentation: The Outlook for Boeing in the Pacific Northwest

This market analysis note is reserved content for AIR research clients only. Please login and click on title to access.   Sign in to your AIR research account. Please ensure that the research note or forecast document that are you are trying to access is included in your current research subscription level.   AIR Subscribers can request secured PDF versions of this note for distribution internally.  A total of eight (8) notes can be provided per site per year. Please Read more…

Cogitatio 51 – What Is Boeing Going to Do? (AIG Survey)

Uncertainty persists about Boeing’s next move to boost its product development strategy and regain lost market shares to Airbus.  As we have indicated back in December, we will be conducting short surveys together with the media side of the house AirInsight. The below survey’s goal is to capture your perspective on what Boeing may do next.  We appreciate that you may not be able to share some or any information due to your current or past relationship with the Boeing Read more…

Cogitatio 50 – Boeing: The Hammer Has Fallen

Much can be said about the Boeing results announced this week.  While we have kept a close look at the abominable financial statements over 2019 and 2020, it is the strategic implications, however, that drive our thinking in light of the 2020 results.  Our sentiment is significantly more negative when it comes to the future of the organization, and the “too big to fail” argument, while still valid, is no longer a guarantee of status quo for repeated organizational and leadership failures.

AIR108 – Global Outlook 2021: Fork in the Road.

In these market and highly volatile geopolitical environments, predictions for 2021 are complex. As Defense Secretary Rumsfeld famously coined: ‘unknown unknowns’ are simply piling up too fast and in too great numbers. The possible has become the probable and the situations, either political, societal or medical simply are too dynamic for analysts to precisely formulate a path forward

Cogitatio 48 – Some Items Worth Mentioning

2021 is upon us, and we, for now, will refrain (until later this month) from voicing an outlook that would be too affirming.  Our survey is being analyzed and will be released as part of our 2021 Outlook.  You may have come across the results from our AirInsight Media colleagues,  but these are different,  our interpretation of the data received goes through an actual process of analysis and data correlation.  We will have the 30+ page report ready for you in a few days.

Several items are toping our list for the first week of 2021:

Boeing is facing another challenging year –  transitioning from the 737MAX crisis

Cogitatio 47 – Outlook 2021 Survey

The survey response period has now ended. Thank you to all who have taken the time to answer.  Results will be shared next week. We are teaming up with our media colleagues to produce our first monthly market surveys. We are planning regular research surveys on issues ranging from avionics, interiors, supply chain, etc. in the course of 2021 and beyond. We will share the results with AIR research customers, including additional analysis that will not be available from other Read more…

Cogitatio 44 – E3 thoughts from CGI and Airbus AFJT

Embraer has been sharing two CGI images of the rumored E3 turboprop regional aircraft.  This is an aircraft that we have been anticipating for the past five years or about. We have briefly discussed the proposed new design with FlightGlobal, and here are some of our preliminary thoughts on what can be deduced from these images:

What it says about Embraer:   the E3 work appears to have been marginally slowed by the now defunct Boeing-Embraer commercial venture.  Research resumed